European Tourists Are Avoiding the U.S.—Here’s Why That Matters for Nonrevs

European travelers are increasingly choosing to skip the United States this summer, with hotel giant Accor reporting a 25% drop in forward bookings from Europe. The cause? A growing sense of unease tied to political uncertainty and President Donald Trump's recent border crackdown.

In an interview with Bloomberg, Accor CEO Sébastien Bazin said European travelers are opting for destinations like Canada, South America, and Egypt instead. Though reports of detainments at U.S. borders remain anecdotal, Bazin cited “anxiety to go in an unknown territory” and a wave of “bad buzz” that’s scaring off European tourists. That unease is translating into fewer bookings—especially when compared to the 18–20% decline in travel from Europe earlier this year.

The impact is already rippling through the airline and hospitality sectors. U.S. carriers like United, American, and Delta saw stock drops following the announcement, while analysts downgraded their ratings for Delta and American. Even Air Canada is seeing a slump in U.S.-bound travel as Canadian travelers respond to trade tensions and nationalist rhetoric.

Why It’s Happening

The drop in bookings stems from a mix of political unease, border policies, and a perception that the U.S. is no longer a welcoming place for international visitors. Though Bazin emphasized that detentions are rare, perception is everything in travel—and right now, the perception is shaky.

Virgin Atlantic recently warned of slowing travel demand between the U.S. and U.K., a rare move that spooked investors. On the Canadian side, even Air Canada is experiencing a 10% drop in bookings from April through September, a sign that political spillover is affecting North American travel patterns broadly.

What This Means for Nonrevs

Here’s the silver lining if you're flying on pass privileges: fewer European tourists may translate into more open seats on transatlantic routes.

If you're based in the U.S. and dreaming of a European getaway, this could be your chance. Airlines may adjust schedules, but those widebody jets still need to fly, and a soft booking environment means greater opportunity for standby travelers to snag premium cabin seats or coveted long-haul rides.

On the flip side, if you're trying to nonrev into the U.S. from Europe, this could also work in your favor. With fewer paid passengers boarding those westbound flights, chances improve for international crew members, ZED fare users, or anyone flying on reciprocal pass agreements.

Key Tips for Passriders:

• Monitor Loads: Pay close attention to seat availability across all cabins, especially in July and August.

• Look for Secondary Cities: With Europe-to-U.S. demand down, routes from cities like Lisbon, Brussels, or Zurich might offer more flexibility than the major hubs.

• Keep Paperwork Tight: Even if you're traveling on a crew pass, be extra careful with entry documentation—the political climate means increased scrutiny at borders.

Long-Term Outlook

Whether this is a temporary blip or the start of a long-term shift remains to be seen. If geopolitical friction continues, we could see a rebalancing of international travel routes, with more demand shifting toward Asia, South America, and intra-European destinations.

For now, though, it may be the best summer in years for nonrevs looking to cross the pond.

Are you seeing lighter loads on transatlantic routes this spring? Has political tension changed your standby travel plans?